Ever visit someplace from childhood and wonder, “wow, I remember it being much more expansive”? Now, go back a few more times and, before long, it will all appear normal. While not entirely the same concept, this is a worthwhile starting point for the worrisome idea of Shifting Baselines. Wait, come back! It may be a complicated-sounding term, but there’s no science lesson here today. Shifting Baselines essentially represents a change in what is perceived as normal. It is most often applied to environmental degradation, specifically in the oceans. So why is a change in perceptions an issue? Well, say a fisherman spent their entire life working the sea, never changing fishing grounds. If any aspect of the catch changed during their life, they’d be able to recall days of better (or worse) results. For them, the baseline is constant. A “big” fish is the same size their entire career, as is a “good” catch. Now, take the perspective of a fisherman new to the area. They have no idea what the conditions were in years past, therefore, their “baseline” is set to when they start.
Still unsure as to the dangers of a shifting baseline? Here’s some specifics to paint a clearer picture:
- Fisherman 1 (lifelong resident) considers a “big fish” 150 lbs. and a “good” catch 1,000 lbs.
- Fisherman 2 (new resident) has no previous experience, so a “big fish” for them is 50 lbs. and a subsequently “good” catch nets (forgive the pun) 400 lbs.
Due to this principle, modern onlookers have “shifted” their “baselines” (perception of normal) and don’t realize the massive decreases in both fish size and numbers. Conservation measures from that point on will strive to preserve what they believe is a healthy population, unaware of the losses already incurred.
So what can be done to avoid shifting our baselines? While I may have said there was no science lesson, there were no promises made regarding history! “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” - George Santayana. When written, it is likely there was little consideration for coral reefs, forests, or global fisheries given, however, the principle is the same. By educating on the past, there is a better chance of saving the future.
As an avid diver, snorkeler, and recreational fisher, I have seen a marked change in the marine habitats frequented. Coral reefs once rich with life are, to me, comparatively barren wastelands, a result of direct (overfishing, boat groundings, careless tourists) and indirect (increased fertilizer runoff, inadequate sewage treatment systems, decreased freshwater flow from the Everglades) impacts. Of course, new visitors see the still-colorful and fish-laden reef and perceive it as beautiful and unspoiled. My baseline, while not one of an “unspoiled” environment either, would be inconceivably stunning to those onlookers.
So now, with a newfound understanding of the troubles facing continually shifting perceptions, I want your opinion! What can be done to stem the continuing change in baselines, no matter the field? Also, have you experienced a Shifting Baseline, where others applauded what was once considered subpar? Tell us about it! Send your story to support@greenprofitsolutions.com. A particularly-inspiring recollection, with your permission, will be reprinted on our blog and website.
Learn more:
Shifting Baselines (A Non-Profit Project)
Shifting Baselines from Ocean Conservancy (PDF)